Wheatland, MO, to Quincy, IL, Weather: 7/10/21

We arrived at an RV park in Wheatland, MO. We figured we would stop here and get a few things done, but I went straight to bed anyhow.

Today, we will be driving north and northeast, probably towards Quincy, IL. I don’t know our route yet or where we are going for sure. We have been doing 200-300 miles each day, so I tentatively targeted Quincy, IL.

The NWS in Springfield, MO, forecasts (for Wheatland, MO) a mostly cloudy day, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 11 mph, gusting to 22 mph.

The NWS in St. Louis, MO, forecasts (for Quincy, IL) a cloudy evening, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-7 mph. Quincy is under a Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM tomorrow.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows we will be driving through a Slight Risk area for severe weather.

Included in this threat is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring.

Current visible satellite imagery shows heavy cloud cover along our route.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity, with cloudy skies (according to the sensors) and light, variable winds.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) continuing to pass through the region this morning. This afternoon, another wave of showers and thunderstorms, potentially severe, will pass through. This time, it is a long squall line.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the mid 80s F, and then decrease to the mid 60s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 70s F, dropping briefly into the 60s F when the squall line passes.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are possible, particularly ahead of the approaching squall line.

The Nested NAM predicts that there will be cloudy skies most of the day today. They may clear up briefly between the MCS and the approaching squall line.

We will evaluate our route today. With the severe storms possible, we may or may not travel today. It has been raining off and on all morning. I expect it to clear out for a bit, but then we will get hit with the afternoon thunderstorms. The catch is, there will be thunderstorms everywhere in the area, so I don’t know that it makes sense to take off and get caught somewhere without shelter. If we stay here, we could also get hit, and we are sitting ducks for any hail threat. Then again, we are sitting ducks for any hail threat, even if we are moving.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Severe Weather, travel and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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