Yesterday was hot, partly sunny and a bit breezy. It threatened to rain a few times, but never quite committed.
This morning, my commute from Rio Rancho to Magdalena took me from sunny skies into the smoke from the Arizona wildfires.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a few sprinkles, and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather that covers the very eastern edge of the state today. Strong winds will be the primary threats.
The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The upper-level water vapor loop shows zonal flow.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a slight inverted v shape. There was 0.62 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1780 m. There was a tiny inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.4 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 17 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 15 kts (due mostly to directional changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows mild temperatures and moderate humidity. The skies are sunny, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but that no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state through the afternoon. Notice the jetstream is a long ways north, running over Canada.
The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show very little thermal advection. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows scattered storms forming this afternoon (19 Z) and generally trending to the east and southeast. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire near the Texas border and remain semi-discrete as they cross into Texas.
The HRRR has a few clusters popping up around 19 Z, though coverage is limited to the very northeastern corner of the state. Storms are not as strong, and more clustered on the HRRR as compared to the Nested NAM.
Precipitation is will be limited to the northeastern corner of the state, and only in isolated pockets.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 90s F.
The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F by tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 20s F this afternoon.
The Nested NAM shows no strong winds today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows cloudy skies near the Texas border, due to the storms, as well as a few, light clouds drifting in from the west.
Today will be sunny and hot for most of the state. There may be a few severe thunderstorms right along the Texas border; the NAM is a bit more optimistic about them being discrete and strong than the HRRR, which has them more clustered and a bit weaker.
I will probably spend most of the day indoors, but I will spend some time moving furniture from one building to another this afternoon.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD