Yesterday was warm, mostly sunny and still.
This morning, Rio Rancho is mild, mostly sunny and still.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming calm in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly by midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) increasing clouds, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 50 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds will be the primary threat, but small hail and brief, heavy downpours are possible. There is also a Red Flag Warning in the southwestern corner of the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the very southwestern corner of New Mexico.
The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The upper-level water vapor loop shows light northerly flow, thanks to a small, tight, upper-level low pressure system over northeastern Texas.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid sounding. There was 0.63 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1275 m. There was a small inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.5 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 26 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 12 kts (due mostly to directional changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows warm temperatures and high humidity. The skies are sunny, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but that no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northerly flow over the state. There is an upper-air low over northeastern Texas, which we already saw on the water vapor imagery.
The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show very little thermal advection. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows scattered storms forming this afternoon (19 Z) and generally trending to the south. Storms will be quite widespread, covering most of the state.
The HRRR has a few cells popping up around 19 Z, with widespread showers and thunderstorms possible by the afternoon.
Precipitation is possible through tomorrow morning over most of the state.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 90s F.
The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F by tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the upper 30s F this afternoon, but rise back into the 40s F overnight.
The Nested NAM shows no strong winds today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows cloudy skies over most of the state by this evening.
Today, both the NAM and the HRRR show widespread showers and thunderstorms today. I tend to agree with them, as it is already hot and humid today, and we’ve had the threat of thunderstorms every day this week. The NWS has 20% isolated chances, and that might be a little low. Conditions will be about as warm as I’ve seen so far this year.
I will probably spend most of the day indoors, though I’d really like to play on amateur radio today. I probably won’t, because I don’t think it will be worth hooking up the antennas, just to disconnect them in the afternoon.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
High Plains Chasing 