Central New Mexico Weather: 6/4/21


Yesterday was warm, mostly sunny and still. In the late evening, a few thunderstorms fired along an outflow boundary that ran almost perfectly along I-40.

This morning, Rio Rancho is mild, mostly sunny and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming calm in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds will be the primary threat, but small hail and brief, heavy downpours are possible.

The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over the southwestern quadrant of the state, mostly debris from last night’s convection.

The upper-level water vapor loop shows light northerly flow, thanks to a small, tight, upper-level low pressure system over northern Mexico.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid sounding. There was 0.74 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 586 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -159 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 887 m. There was no inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.5 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 13 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity. The skies are sunny, with a few cloudy reports in the southwest (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but that no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northeasterly flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show very little thermal advection. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows scattered storms forming this afternoon (21 Z) and generally trending to the southeast.

The HRRR has a few cells popping up around 21 Z, though they are very isolated. Near the AZ border, there will be a few more clusters.

Precipitation is possible through tomorrow morning, in a bunch of thin, isolated swaths.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the upper 80s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the upper 30s F this afternoon, but rise back into the 40s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows no strong winds today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows cloudy skies over the northeastern quadrant of the state by this evening.

Today, a few, isolated thunderstorms are possible, particularly along the Arizona border and along the central mountain range. Storms will generally move south-southwest, and gusty winds will be the primary threat.

I will probably spend most of the day indoors, as I am still catching up on work after my storm chasing trip. I’m not going to say I’m done chasing for the year, but I don’t see an opportunity to chase for a little while.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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