The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk for the central Great Plains.
Associated with this risk is a 5% Tornado Threat ring stretching from the Texas Panhandle into Illinois.
The surface map shows a light southeasterly breeze, morning temperatures in the lower 60s F, with dewpoints in the mid 50s F, with mostly sunny skies. There was some morning convection around 5:30, and it has since moved east.
I highlighted the location of a dryline and potential frontal boundary. The dryline may go a bit farther west, but notice the shift in winds on either side of the red line in this image.
The visible satellite imagery shows some morning convection over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. There are a few boundaries over the Panhandles region that may be worth tracking.
The HRRR shows humid conditions, with a sharpening dryline in the southern Texas Panhandle by early evening.
The 12 Z sounding from Norman, OK, is incomplete, but has the start to a good, severe weather sounding. There was a lot of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and a capping inversion in place. The deep-layer shear is good (45 kts), and has a directional component to it. The low-level shear is good (24 kts).
Amarillo’s sounding is complete, and while it has lower CAPE, it is similar to Norman’s.
The surface-based CAPE is forecasted to be highest over western Oklahoma, but begins to decrease everywhere by 22 Z.
Surface vorticity will be moderately high near the OK/TX border along I-40.
As expected from this data, the Supercell Parameter is highest over central Oklahoma.
I pulled up the simulated reflectivity for the HRRR. The Texas Panhandle has several cells that remain discrete for longer. Everything from western Oklahoma eastwards is a mess very quickly.
I am initially targeting Shamrock, TX, and will evaluate from there.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD