The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Moderate Risk for the central Great Plains.
Associated with this risk is a bull’s eye 15% hatched Tornado Threat ring over western Kansas.
The surface map shows a light southeasterly breeze, morning temperatures in the upper 70s F, with dewpoints in the upper 60s F, with mostly sunny skies. A morning walk verified these conditions.
The visible satellite imagery shows some morning convection along I-70 in the western part of the state. Perhaps this will leave us an outflow boundary.
The HRRR shows humid conditions over Kansas, with dewpoints in the 60s F all day. The dryline is expected to tighten up this afternoon, particularly over western KS.
The 12 Z sounding from Dodge City, KS, shows a humid atmosphere, with some Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) already, with some capping. With a convective temperature of 90 F, it will be tight, but it is a cap is breakable. The deep-layer shear is a little low (30 kts), but has a directional component to it. The low-level shear is good (22 kts).
Speaking of CAPE, there is a small CAPE maxima west of Dodge City, KS, later this afternoon.
There is a surface vorticity maxima a little farther southwest, over the CO border.
As expected from this data, the Supercell Parameter is highest over western Kansas, with a local maxima near Syracuse, KS.
Just for fun, I pulled up the simulated reflectivity for the HRRR shows earlier storm initiation in Wyoming and eastern Colorado, but a more linear mode there. HRRR shows a single cell developing over I-70 in western Kansas and a cluster of storms in the Texas Panhandle early this evening.
I am thinking of heading somewhere a little northwest of here, perhaps Syracuse, KS, or Garden City, KS, to reevaluate.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD