Storm Chase Day #7: Predictions

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued two Slight Risks along a swath of the Great Plains.

Associated with this risk is a thin, long, 2% Tornado Threat Ring.

The surface map shows a moderate south and southeasterly breeze, morning temperatures in the lower 70s F, with dewpoints in the lower 60s F, with mostly sunny skies. Winds are still from the southeast, advecting more moisture into the area. Here in Hays, KS, the outdoor conditions match the surface map.

The visible satellite imagery shows only light, high cloud cover, moving east, and some light, mid-level clouds drifting southeast, slowly. The mid-level clouds likely mark a boundary, and we will want to stay southeast of those.

The HRRR shows humid conditions over Kansas, with dewpoints in the 60s F all day. The dryline is a good bit west (and north). We may not need the dryline as one of our boundaries.

The 12 Z sounding from Dodge City, KS, shows a humid atmosphere, with only a little Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), with just a large capping inversion. I expect the CAPE to increase throughout the day. The deep-layer shear is adequate, and has a directional component to it.

I checked the Amarillo, TX, sounding as well, but there is no CAPE, and it looks a little like a winter sounding, with a 48 F dewpoint.

Speaking of CAPE, there is a small CAPE maxima near Dodge City, KS, later this afternoon.

There is a surface vorticity maxima a little farther southwest, maybe near Liberal, KS.

As expected from this data, the Supercell Parameter is highest (locally) closer to Dodge City, maybe even farther east.

Just for fun, I pulled up the simulated reflectivity for the HRRR. Late-firing storms, near the OK/KS line.

I am thinking of heading south. Somewhere along like Kingman or Pratt, KS.

Thank you for reading my post.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.