The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for a big stripe of the High Plains today.
There was no tornado threat originally, but now the SPC has bumped it up to a 5% Tornado threat.
The surface map shows a moderate south and southeasterly breeze, temperatures in the upper 70s F, and a sharpening dryline across the eastern part of Colorado.
I highlighted the dryline.
Looking at the SPC Mesoscale Map, there is a good bubble of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) near Burlington, CO.
The biggest problem so far this morning is the cloud cover. Once again, we have a cirrus shield that is limiting some of our diurnal heating.
Here in Fort Morgan, it has been sunny, cloudy, and partly cloudy since I woke up, as different band of upper-level clouds have floated overhead. However, there is some clearing to our southeast.
I highlighted a feature of interest. On the satellite loop, it is moving east. Perhaps this boundary will help us?
The Supercell Parameter (SCP) hits a maximum along the I-76 corridor, but then again near Burlington, CO, later in the afternoon.
Gut feeling- we are going to have a line with a few embedded supercells. It’s going to be a mess to dodge. Our best bet may be a mesoscale accident ahead of the line, if one forms.
For now, we are headed southeast towards Siebert, CO, and I bet we trend east to Burlington before the day has finished.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD