We are going to set off for Limon, CO, today in preparation of the severe weather threat tomorrow in northeastern Colorado, southeastern Wyoming and southwestern Nebraska.
I still need to:
* Unpack and repack my tools and emergency supplies * Check the oil and spare tire * Clean out the car * Do laundry * Pack my clothing bag * Pack my antennas * Pack radio log notebook
* Update my atlas
* Program the radio
* Grocery shop
* Pack cameras
* Fill spare gas tank
* Pack tripod
* Get batteries for camera
* Cable management
* Test WX radio
* Cook food for trip
* Prepare snack bag
* Prepare cat bag
* Set up fish feeder
* Set up dog for neighbor * Set up plants for neighbor
* Plant a few things in the garden
* Pack medicine
* Pack cooler
* Charge video camera battery
* Rig a cover for backseat
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for Day 2 (Thursday).
Associated with this risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring.
Day 3 is in the same area, though the threat is not as strong. Either way, we will be there, should storms develop.
The Thursday threat is close enough in time that I can start to look at the NAM for guidance. The 250 mb chart shows an ejecting trough over the region, though it seems a little slower-moving than yesterday.
The NAM is showing a tightening dryline on Thursday. It is not as sharp in southeastern Colorado in this morning’s run as it was in yesterday’s run.
Just for fun, I looked at the simulated reflectivity, and there is one lone cell firing in southeastern Colorado. There’s also two clusters that start out discrete farther north.
However, the SuperCell Parameter (SCP) is not impressive at all. It’s not zero, so I guess that’s a start.
I also pulled a forecasted sounding for 21Z tomorrow near Yuma, CO. The CAPE rises to over 3000 J/kg, though the deep-layer shear is a little weak at only 27 kts.
I still have a lot to do before our 11 am departure, so I am going to clear off from here. I’ll give updates from the road!
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD