Central New Mexico Weather: 5/3/21


Yesterday, Rio Rancho was sunny, warm and windy. I went for a run anyhow, during one of the lulls.

This morning, Rio Rancho is mild, clear and still

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 70% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph, becoming northwesterly this afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and a low temperature of 42 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph, becoming southeasterly this afternoon.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and a low temperature of 43 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) increasing clouds, with a 60% chance of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and a low temperature of 37 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and a high temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and a low temperature of 37 F. The winds will be from the north at 10 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Red Flag Warning and a Wind Advisory for most of the state today. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few clouds scattered over the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low humidity. Stations are reporting sunny skies, with a few exceptions (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under low pressure with no strong pressure gradients overhead. The RAP shows the pressure will rise slightly over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow, as we linger at the bottom of a trough.

The NAM 700 mb chart shows Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the west.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows CAA coming in from the northeast as well; a strong back door cold front that will impact the eastern plains by this evening.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows scattered showers and thunderstorms, statewide, today.

Precipitation is likely, with much of the state receiving some rain by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 40s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 30s F, rising briefly into the 40s F this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows gusty winds near the strongest storms.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly cloudy skies by this afternoon and evening.

An upper-level low pressure system is going to move in from the west, running over a surface back door cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are possible all day, statewide, with a few severe thunderstorms possible near the Texas border this afternoon.

I will spend all of today moving things around the NMT campus. Maybe in the rain.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.