Central New Mexico Weather: 5/2/21


Yesterday, Rio Rancho was sunny, warm and still. It was a beautiful day, and I spent the afternoon working in my garden.

This morning, Rio Rancho is mild, sunny and breezy

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 49 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight. Rio Rancho is under a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM until 9 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph, and gusting to 35 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 48 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 10-20 mph after midnight. Socorro is under a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM until 9 PM and a Wind Advisory from 12 PM until 10 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph and gusting to 40 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 43 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 10-20 mph after midnight. Magdalena is under a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM until 9 PM and a Wind Advisory from 12 PM until 10 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 44 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 10-20 mph after midnight. Mountainair is under a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM until 9 PM and a Wind Advisory from 12 PM until 10 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Red Flag Warning and a Wind Advisory for most of the state today. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for most of New Mexico today. Southwesterly winds are expected to increase and moisture will decrease ahead of the next trough. The question will be whether the fuels dry out from the rain last week.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state this morning. It has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows no nearly saturated layers, but a slight inverted v shape. There was 0.36 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2617 m. There was a tiny thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.9 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 17 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 19 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and low humidity. Stations are reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are breezy and from the west.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under low pressure with no strong pressure gradients overhead. The RAP shows the low will deepen with diurnal heating, and a few slight pressure gradients will appear around the hot spots.

The Fosberg index is expected to climb into the 60s and 70s in patches over the next six hours. It will reach into the 80s over the bootheel region.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate to strong, zonal flow.

The NAM 700 mb chart shows Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the west.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows very few echoes today. This and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 80s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 50s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 30s F today.

The Nested NAM shows breezy conditions late this evening.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart very few clouds over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The story of the day is going to be the fire weather risk. Winds are already picking up here in Rio Rancho, and they will continue to strength over the next few hours. The temperatures will rise into the 80s F and the dewpoints will drop, leading to the increased wild fire risk.

Temperature-wise, it will be a nice day. The winds, while not cold, will make it unpleasant, with blowing dust. I will probably spend most of my time indoors today.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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