Central New Mexico Weather: 4/7/21


Yesterday, Socorro was warm, mostly sunny and quite windy in the afternoon.

This morning, Rio Rancho is cool, sunny and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Temperatures will remain above normal. Yesterday’s storm system has moved east, but the 65 kt jet max will mix downward, keeping the surface winds breezy and dry. There is still a risk of wildfires through the next few days.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 73 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph and gusting to 35 mph this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 38 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight. Rio Rancho is under a Red Flag Warning from 12 PM until 8 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 41 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph. Socorro is under a Red Flag Warning from 12 PM until 8 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 71 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 39 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, becoming southwesterly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then becoming northerly at 5-10 mph by midnight. Mountainair is under a Red Flag Warning from 12 PM until 8 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued Red Flag Warnings for most of the state. The Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for a swath of central New Mexico today. While winds are not expected to be as strong as yesterday, they are still strong enough to cause fires to spread rapidly.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere. There was 0.14 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2352 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 24 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 87 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures with low humidity. The skies are sunny, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating on the east side of the mountains, but no strong gradients are expected over the next six hours.

The Fosberg index is expected to climb into the 60s over central New Mexico.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, northwesterly to zonal flow over the state by this afternoon.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show some light Cold Air Advection (CAA), but it is moving out of the area. I have excluded these charts from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely today. This, and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 70s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 40s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 10s F today, rising briefly into the 20s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible all day.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today. Our morning clouds will mix out and drift away quickly. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

It’s going to be warm, dry and windy. The winds will not be as strong as yesterday, but with the dry conditions, there is still a risk of wildfire.

I will probably go outside for a walk in the afternoon, even if it is windy. Otherwise, I won’t get much exercise at all today.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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