Central New Mexico Weather: 4/6/21


Yesterday, Socorro was warm, mostly sunny and still. I did make a few trips around campus to get outside and enjoy the weather.

This morning, Socorro is cool, sunny and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Temperatures will remain above normal. A storm system will move east out of Utah, and though we will receive no precipitation, the winds will increase, ramping up the fire weather threat by this afternoon.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph and gusting to 45 mph this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 38 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, but then decreasing to 15-20 mph after midnight. Rio Rancho is under a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM until 8 PM and a Wind Advisory from 11 AM until 9 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph and gusting to 35 mph this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 15-20 mph after midnight. Socorro is under a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM until 8 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph and gusting to 40 mph this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 37 F. The winds will be from the west at 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 15-20 mph after midnight. Magdalena is under a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM until 8 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 73 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph and gusting to 45 mph this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 36 F. The winds will be from the west at 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 15-20 mph after midnight. Mountainair is under a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM until 8 PM and a Wind Advisory from 11 AM until 9 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories for most of the state. The Wind Advisories are not as widespread, and totally hidden by the Red Flag Warnings on the Watches and Warnings graphic, shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for most of New Mexico today. A deepening trough will increase the mid-level winds, timed with deep mixing during the afternoon hours, increasing the surface winds and lowering the humidity into the single digits.

The visible satellite imagery shows some light clouds over the southern half of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere. There was 0.16 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 3332 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 7.7 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 32 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 65 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures with low humidity. The skies are sunny, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under low pressure with a slight pressure gradient to another low pressure system over the central Great Plains. The RAP shows that the low over the central Great Plains is expected to deepen, strengthening the pressure gradient from southwest to northeast in the next six hours, especially over the northern part of the state.

The Fosberg index is expected to climb into the 80s F region later this day over the Eastern Plains of New Mexico.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal flow over the state by this afternoon.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show some light Cold Air Advection (CAA) overnight, though it will be on its way out of the area by tomorrow morning. It is more visible on the 700 mb chart.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely today. This, and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 70s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 30s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 10s F today.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible all day.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today. Our morning clouds will mix out and drift away quickly. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

It’s going to be warm, dry and windy. The wind is going to be the big story of the day, and hopefully it remains the story, and not the spreading or starting of wildfires, as this will be a major threat today.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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