Central New Mexico Weather: 4/4/21


Yesterday, Rio Rancho was beautiful, again. We went for a brief hike in the Sandias.

This morning, Rio Rancho is mild, sunny and still. There are a few light, high, thin clouds.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The warming trend continues today. An upper-level disturbance will bring a few thunderstorms and some virga to the state, though not as widespread as yesterday.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 49 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming light and westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a 10% chance of isolated thunderstorms and a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) increasing clouds, with a 10% chance of isolated thunderstorms and a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a 10% chance of isolated thunderstorms and a low temperature of 48 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 48 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows some light clouds over the central mountain range and northwestern corner of the state. There is a cirrus shield over southeastern corner of the state this morning as well.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid boundary layer, below 500 mb. There was 0.44 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1529 m. There was a moderate thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.7 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 16 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures with low humidity. The skies are sunny, with a few cloudy reports in the southeast (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under slightly higher pressure, with a no strong gradients. The RAP shows that diurnal heating will drop the pressure slightly over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northwesterly flow.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely today. This, and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the upper 70s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 50s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 30s F today.

The Nested NAM shows winds will are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few pockets of convection this afternoon and evening.

It’s going to be a beautiful day. I agree with the NWS, in that I think a few dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Based on the sounding’s shape, they will be gusty.

I am going for a run in a bit, and I will do some work in the garden as well.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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