Central New Mexico Weather: 2/9/21


Yesterday, Socorro was mild, sunny and still. I forgot to publish yesterday’s forecast until this morning. I hate being stupid. There was a fantastic sunset, however.

This morning, Socorro has been mild, sunny, and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Dry, warm and breezy conditions will continue for most of the region throughout today. The low relative humidity and strong winds will amplify the fire weather threat over the eastern plains. This evening, a weak, but dry storm system will bring a few clouds into the area.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 36 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 71 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 36 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Red Flag Warning for a large patch of the state, including the central mountain chain and the eastern plains. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for a bullseye around Tucumcari. Relative humidity of less than 10% has developed in an area where dry, downslope winds are expected to exceed 20 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows light clouds drifting through the northern third of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere.  There was 0.15 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2141 m. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.3 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 39 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 56 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and very low relative humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning. Near the NM/TX border, there is a strong pressure gradient between us and the high pressure over the northern Great Plains. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, and the pressure gradient will sharpen throughout the day.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state this morning. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few weak echoes, but very little precipitation. This chart, and the precipitation chart, have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 40s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will vary between 0 F and 20 F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible this afternoon, particularly east of the central mountain range and at high elevations.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows scattered clouds are possible late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Today will be mild, sunny and breezy. I will be in the office most of the day, but will make it a point to get out and walk during the good weather.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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