Yesterday was sunny and cool. I went for a run in Fredericksburg.
This morning, Jersey, VA, has been cold, mostly sunny and still.
From the NWS in Sterling, VA: High pressure persists over the region today, leading to sunny skies, slightly warmer temperatures and still winds.
The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F. The wind will be from the south at 3-6 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 28 F. The wind will be light and variable.
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 52 F. The wind will be calm, becoming southerly at 5 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 30 F. The wind will be from the south at 3-5 mph.
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 51 F. The wind will be calm, becoming southerly at 6 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 33 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 6 mph.
The visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies over the state this morning, with a few patches of clouds.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a humid surface layer, but then drier air just above the surface. There was 0.33 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 188 m. There was a large thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 0.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 16 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 58 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map Surface Observations Map shows cold temperatures and high relative humidity. The skies are a sunny, (according to the sensors) with virtually no wind.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we under high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning.. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state today.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely today. This chart, and the precipitation chart, have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the upper 40s F by this afternoon.
The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s F by tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will peak in the mid 30s F this afternoon.
The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few light clouds drifting in from the south this evening.
Today will be sunny, cool and still.
I am likely stuck inside all day, but I might get outside and work on a car for a few minutes this afternoon.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD