Northern Neck, Virginia Weather: 1/12/21


Yesterday was cool and cloudy. It drizzled off and on all afternoon.

This morning, Jersey, VA, has been cold, mostly sunny and still.

From the NWS in Sterling, VA:  High pressure will remain over the region, slowly slipping to the east this afternoon and evening. The low pressure over the Carolinas and its associated clouds will move to the east, out of the region later this afternoon.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 47 F. The wind will be from the north at 3-5 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F. The wind will be light and variable.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 47 F. The wind will be from the north at 3-8 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 27 F. The wind will be calm.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 46 F. The wind will be from the north at 6-8 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 29 F. The wind will be light and variable.

The visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies over the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a humid surface layer, but then drier air just above the surface. There was 0.20 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 125 m. There was a large thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 0.3 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 10 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 27 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map Surface Observations Map shows cold temperatures and high relative humidity. The skies are a cloudy, (according to the sensors) with light, northwesterly winds.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we under high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning.. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely today. This chart, and the precipitation chart, have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the mid 40s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will bounce between the upper 20s F and lower 30s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly sunny skies all day. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be sunny, cool and still.

I will go for a drive, and I might get to for a walk later this afternoon, but it is unlikely. I will probably spend the day inside again today, working on different projects.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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