Yesterday was cool and sunny. I did some work on one of my cars outside, towing it out of the woods to work on it more easily.
This morning, Jersey, VA, has been cold, mostly cloudy and still.
From the NWS in Sterling, VA: High pressure will remain over the region, slowly slipping to the east this afternoon and evening. The boundary layer decoupled last night, meaning the surface winds are light (as compared to the strong winds in the jetstreak aloft). Moisture is increasing, and cloud cover will remain throughout the day.
The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a cloudy day, with scattered sprinkles and a high temperature of 46 F. The wind will be from the south at 3-6 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 26 F. The wind will be light and variable.
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a cloudy day, with scattered sprinkles and a high temperature of 47 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 3-7 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 29 F. The wind will be light and variable.
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a cloudy day, with scattered sprinkles and a high temperature of 47 F. The wind will be calm, becoming southwesterly at 5-7 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 31 F. The wind will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.
The visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies over the state this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows varied moisture, with a very humid surface layer, nearly-saturated atmosphere above 600 mb. There was a layer of dry air between the surface and 600 mb that will limit precipitation today. There was 0.28 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 222 m. There was a large thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 0.8 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 14 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 65 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map Surface Observations Map shows cold temperatures and high relative humidity. The skies are a cloudy, (according to the sensors) with light, northwesterly winds.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we under high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning.. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, zonal to southwesterly flow over the state today.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows light echoes over most of the state through the afternoon.
The simulated precipitation chart, however, shows that the precipitation is unlikely to reach the ground in any measurable quantities.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the lower 40s F by this afternoon.
The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 20s F by tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will peak in the mid 30s F.
The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly cloudy skies all day.
Today will be cloudy, cool and still. I hadn’t thought about the boundary layer decoupling, but that is a neat way to think of the different layers in the atmosphere. See- you learn something new by reading out-of-area forecasts!
I may go for a hike in the woods today. I have a bunch of work to do inside, so we’ll see.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD