Yesterday was cool, breezy, and mostly sunny. I went for a hike around the Fredericksburg Battleground and the First Day of Chancellorsville Battleground.
This morning, Jersey, VA, has been cold, mostly sunny and still. It looks warmer than it is.
From the NWS in Sterling, VA: High pressure will remain over the region, clearing the skies and allowing more diurnal heating. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today as compared to yesterday.
The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 47 F. The wind will be from the northwest at 5-7 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 27 F. The wind will be light and variable.
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 47 F. The wind will be from the northwest at 6-9 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F. The wind will be calm
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 46 F. The wind will be from the northwest at 6-9 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 28 F. Calm wind.
The visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies over the state this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a dry atmosphere. There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 873 m. There was a small, elevated thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 3.7 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 22 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 16 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map Surface Observations Map shows cold temperatures and high relative humidity. The skies are a mix of cloudy and sunny, (according to the sensors) with northwesterly winds.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we under high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning.. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal flow over the state today.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely. The simulated reflectivity and simulated precipitation charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the mid 40s F by this afternoon.
The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s F by tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the mid 20s F.
The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clear skies today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be sunny and cool.
I may go for a hike again today somewhere in Fredericksburg. I may work on my car, or on the driveway. It looks like a nice day outside.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD