Central New Mexico Weather: 11/20/20


Yesterday was warm and sunny.

This morning, Rio Rancho has been cool, partly sunny and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A series of upper level disturbances and back door cold fronts will start to impact the state over the next few days. This will lead to a sharp cooling trend and some high elevation precipitation.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 42 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 44 F. The winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 42 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows light cloud cover over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately dry atmosphere, with a nearly-saturated layer at 300 mb. There was 0.33 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1528 m. There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.6 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 8 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 42 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows warm temperatures and low relative humidity.  The skies are sunny, (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under slightly higher pressure with no strong pressure gradients at this time. The RAP shows the pressure will remain high for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate to strong zonal flow aloft.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows a Cold Air Advection (CAA) approaching from the northeast.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows some very light precipitation is possible in the northwestern corner of the state this evening.

The Nested NAM simulated precipitation chart shows rain is possible along the very northern edge of the state. This chart shows rain through 12 Z tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 40s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop from the lower 30s F into the teens later this evening.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows increasing cloud cover this evening and into the early morning hours.

Today should be pleasant, but becoming cloudier and cooler this evening.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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