Central New Mexico Weather: 10/14/20

Yesterday, Socorro was pleasant. It was sunny and warm, with only a light breeze.

This morning, Socorro has been sunny, cool and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  An upper-level jet moving through the central Rockies will increase wind speeds aloft. Surface winds over New Mexico will increase, leading to increased wildfire risk. Later this evening, a backdoor cold front will move into the eastern half of the state, once again increasing wind speeds. The cold front will drop temperatures, but with no available moisture, will not produce any precipitation.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 52 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 50 F. The winds will be from the west at 15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, and a low temperature of 47 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph. There is a Red Flag Warning in place from 11 AM until 8 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Red Flag Warning for a large chunk of the state this afternoon and evening. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for a section of the Eastern Plains. Winds will increase with the passing of the backdoor cold front, increasing the threat of wildfire.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the northeastern corner of the state. Unbelievable- a cloud!

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere.  There was 0.17 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2544 m. There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 2.6 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 31 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 16 kts (due to mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and very low humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows we are under high pressure, with a moderate pressure gradients radiating from the western edge of the state.  The RAP shows that pressure will drop with diurnal heating, and the pressure gradient is expected to linger over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow aloft.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show Cold Air Advection (CAA) overnight and into the morning hours. It is more visible on the 850 mb chart.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This chart, and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 80s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 40s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will peak in the mid 10s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible this evening and into the early morning hours, as the backdoor cold front passes through.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be warm, dry, and breezy. I expect cooler temperatures tomorrow morning.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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