Central New Mexico Weather: 9/16/20

Yesterday, Socorro was sunny and mild.

This morning, Socorro is sunny, mild, and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  High pressure will remain, keeping us dry and on a warming trend. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible over the southwest, and overnight winds may be gusty in the valleys this evening.  A gusty, backdoor front is expected to enter the state this afternoon and push south through the Eastern Plains, but weather will remain dry.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be light and from the northeast at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 53 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 50 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 48 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows clear skies over most of the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid layer from 500 mb to 450 mb. There was 0.49 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1541 m. There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.6 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 3 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 6 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows we are under high pressure, with no strong pressure gradient.  The RAP shows that pressure conditions are expected to remain the same for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow over the state today, as upper-level high pressure develops over the Four Corners area.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows no further shower or thunderstorm development today.  The simulated reflectivity and precipitation charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 80s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the mid 30s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are not expected today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clear skies by this afternoon.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The NWS mentions a backdoor cold front; I can see that on the 700 mb chart, but it doesn’t appear to be very strong, and looks to develop overnight.  In any event, with little moisture, it will be more of a mild wind event than a temperature drop.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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