Central New Mexico Weather: 9/14/20

Yesterday, Rio Rancho was sunny and mild.

This morning, Rio Rancho is sunny, mild, and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  High pressure will remain, keeping us dry and on a warming trend. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible over Catron and western Socorro counties, over the high terrain, but otherwise, warm and dry weather for the state is likely for the next several days.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a hazy, but sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming southeasterly this afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy and hazy, with a low temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, but hazy day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy and hazy, with a low temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a hazy, but mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms and a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy and hazy, with a low temperature of 48 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a hazy, but mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy and hazy, with a low temperature of 49 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows clear skies over most of the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows only limited humidity, with no nearly-saturated layers. There was 0.41 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1406 m. There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.4 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and high humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows we are under high pressure, with no strong pressure gradient.  The RAP shows that pressure conditions are expected to remain the same for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northwesterly flow over the state today, as we end up on the backside of a low-amplitude, shortwave trough.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows no further shower or thunderstorm development today.  The simulated reflectivity and precipitation charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 80s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 30s F all day.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are not expected today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clear skies by this afternoon.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Both the SPC and the Albuquerque NWS are showing a possibility of thunderstorms, but there is some disagreement as to where.  SPC shows the southern part of the state, and the Albuquerque NWS shows some west.  The NAM shows none whatsoever, but I bet there’ll be a mesoscale mistake and somewhere sees a stray thunderstorm, as there is still some moisture left over from last week’s system.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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