Central New Mexico Weather: 8/29/20

Yesterday, Rio Rancho was sunny until the evening.  Nearby thunderstorms generated almost no rain, but plenty of wind.  The radar image shows the storms developing after an outflow boundary passed:

At my weather station, you can see when the virga bomb hit.

Around the same time, there was the 0 Z sounding, which shows the inverted-v traces, which are perfect for strong downdrafts and virga bombs.

This morning, Rio Rancho has been mild, sunny and still.  We had a few drops of rain last night, but not enough to be measurable.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The upper high is expected to continue to sink farther south.  A shortwave trough is moving across northern New Mexico, which will generate some potentially severe storms.  Gusty, downdraft winds and large hail are the primary threats.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with  a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning isolated afternoon thunderstorms, with gusty, downdraft winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall as the primary threats.  Storms will approach severe limits in the northeastern corner of the state.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather over the northeastern corner of the state.  The primary threats will be gusty, downdraft winds and large hail.

Associated with the Slight Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring.

The visible satellite imagery shows a scattered clouds over the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere. There was 0.91 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 38 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), 403 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1523 m. There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.8 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 3 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 28 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with moderate humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are northerly and light.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning.  There is a high pressure system over central Colorado.   The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show moderate, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show some Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the northeast.  It is more apparent on the 850 mb chart.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the northern half of the state.

Precipitation will have increased in intensity and coverage since yesterday, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints are expected to remain in the upper 40s F and lower 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the strongest of the afternoon thunderstorms.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds associated with the afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Today will be sunny and hot, with a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The backdoor front is more visible today on the 850 mb chart, but it didn’t get mentioned in the NWS.  Either way, the front will ramp up storm severity over the northeastern corner of the state.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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