Central New Mexico Weather: 8/17/20

Yesterday, Rio Rancho was hot and mostly sunny.  I took a chance and left my antennas plugged in over night.  Around 4 AM, a storm blew through, and I had to run and unplug everything.  I attached the radar images to show you how isolated this storm was:

This morning, the weather has been sunny, hot and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  An upper-level high pressure in the Great Basin will push north and strengthen.  This will allow some more moisture into the state, but because the high is strengthening, it will also remain hot.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible due to the available moisture.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph, becoming southerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the southeasterly at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with  a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a  low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning isolated thunderstorms.  The primary threat will be gusty, erratic winds.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the mountains this morning, and a few more over the southeastern corner of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a weak, inverted-v shape, with a humid layer near 500 mb. There was 0.75 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 1095 J/kg of  Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -206 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1402 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 7.2 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 9 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 22 kts (due mostly to direction changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows warm temperatures with moderate humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are slightly high pressure this morning, but with no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, northeasterly flow over the state today, as the upper-level high shifts west.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show some Cold Air Advection (CAA) approaching from the east.  Notice how the wind barbs point across the thermal gradient from cool to warm.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible.  Storms that form will have a southwesterly path, which is a little unusual, but based on the northeasterly upper-level flow.

Precipitation will be light, but it is expected to be heavier along the western edge of the state, for a change.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints are expected to remain in the upper 40s F all day.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds associated with the afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Today will be sunny and hot, with a chance of some afternoon thunderstorms.  I will be watching closely and will remember to ground my antennas tonight!

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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