Yesterday, Rio Rancho was hot and mostly sunny. In the afternoon, a few nearby thunderstorms rolled through, and we received 0.01 inches of rain.
This morning, the weather has been sunny, hot and still.
From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM: An upper-level high pressure in the Great Basin will keep the northwestern corner of the state dry. Near-record temperatures are possible for the western part of the state, through they will be slightly cooler than yesterday. A frontal boundary is expected to move southward into the state, though deep mixing may delay its entry into the state. This afternoon, thunderstorms are possible, especially near the frontal boundary. The primary threats will be large hail and gusty, downdraft winds.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 100 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph, becoming southerly at 5-10 mph by midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the southeasterly at 5-15 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning severe thunderstorms, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state. Storms will have strong, potentially damaging winds, and large hail is possible.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the very northeastern corner of the state. A surface cold front is expected to move towards the NM/TX boundary, but may be stalled by deep mixing before crossing into NM. Storms that form may produce damaging winds.
The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a weak, inverted-v shape, with a humid layer near 500 mb. There was 0.75 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 117 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -710 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1156 m. There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.4 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 13 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows warm temperatures with moderate humidity. The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.
The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are slightly high pressure this morning, but with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart show light, northerly flow over the state today, as the upper-level high shifts west.
The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show very little thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Rain is possible along a stripe from the southwestern corner to the northeastern corner of the state.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 90s F.
The low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints are expected to remain in the 50s F all day.
The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the afternoon thunderstorms.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds associated with the afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Today will be sunny and hot, with a chance of some afternoon thunderstorms.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
High Plains Chasing 