Central New Mexico Weather: 8/4/20

Yesterday was sunny and hot, though a few severe thunderstorms rolled through the Albuquerque Metro area.

This morning, the weather has been sunny, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The subtropical high will continue to drift into southwestern NM.  As it does, dry air will filter into the state from the west, pushing a diffuse dryline farther east.  This will reduce the chances of showers and thunderstorms, though they are still possible, particularly along the Texas border.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature around 97 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming light and northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of around 99 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 70 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning numerous afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon.   Storms may become severe, with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours.  Storms will favor the very northeastern corner of the state.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is missing today.  I’m not sure what is happening at the office.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with high humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, northwesterly flow, as the pattern begins to flatten.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show very little thermal advection over the state today.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, particularly near the Texas border.

Precipitation is unlikely in the Albuquerque Metro area, but is possible near the Texas border.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints are expected to drop from the mid 50s F to the upper 30s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few clouds associated with the afternoon thunderstorms.

Today will dry out a bit, with dewpoints falling into the upper 30s F.  Showers and thunderstorms will be generally limited to the northeastern corner of the state, and hot, sunny weather is in store for most of the state today.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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