Central New Mexico Weather: 8/2/20

Yesterday was sunny, hot and still.  In the afternoon, a storm passed near my house, and I got a spectacular show of some mammatus.

Click on the photo below to see the full-size panoramic photo.

In the middle of the night, a storm with a lot of lightning rolled through.  Look at the lightning strikes on the radar images.

This morning, the weather has been sunny, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A high pressure ridge aloft will steer an upper-level disturbance through New Mexico today.  The CAPE and shear profiles will support at least a few, isolated severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature around 95 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming northerly at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 15-20 mph, becoming southeast by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of around 98 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning numerous afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon.   Storms may become severe, with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for central New Mexico, including the Albuquerque Metro area.  Gusty downdraft winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

The visible satellite imagery shows just a few light clouds over the northwestern part of the state.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is missing today.  This is probably due to the early morning thunderstorms.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with high humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, northerly flow, as a trough digs through the Great Plains.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show some Cold Air Advection (CAA).  The CAA shows up more clearly on the 700 mb chart.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Precipitation is possible over most of the state, particularly along the central mountain range.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints are expected to remain in the mid 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the afternoon thunderstorms.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few clouds associated with the afternoon thunderstorms.

There is a chance of storms this afternoon and evening.  Otherwise, sunny, hot weather is on tap for the afternoon again today.  I have to think the little bit of CAA will ramp up the severity of thunderstorms along that weak boundary.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Advertisement

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.