Central New Mexico Weather: 8/1/20

Yesterday was sunny, hot and still.  In the afternoon, a severe thunderstorm rolled through the Albuquerque Metro area.

From my house, it looked pretty cool rolling in:

This morning, the weather has been sunny, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Today is similar to yesterday, in that storms will develop and could become severe, with large hail, strong downburst winds and heavy rains as the primary threats.  Moisture has traveled farther west than yesterday, meaning storm coverage will be more widespread, though buoyancy will be lower.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of showers and severe thunderstorms, and a high temperature around 95 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming northerly at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered severe showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 15-20 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and severe thunderstorms, and a high temperature of around 98 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and severe thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and severe thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and severe thunderstorms and a low temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning numerous afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon.   Storms may become severe, with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for central New Mexico, including the Albuquerque Metro area.  Storms are expected to be outflow dominated, and will have gusty downdraft winds and large hail as the primary threats.  Buoyancy is a little lower today, which will limit the severity of these storms as compared to yesterday.

The visible satellite imagery shows just a few light clouds over the central part of the state.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere below 450 mb.  There was 0.80 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 256 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -524 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 770 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.8 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 7 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 23 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with high humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under slightly higher pressure this morning, with a slight pressure gradient from northeast to southwest.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, northwesterly flow, as a trough digs through the Great Plains.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show no strong thermal advection.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, particularly east of the central mountain chain.

Precipitation is possible over most of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints are expected to bounce between the upper 40s F and lower 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the afternoon thunderstorms.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few clouds associated with the afternoon thunderstorms.

There is a chance of storms this afternoon and evening.  Otherwise, sunny, hot weather is on tap for the afternoon again today.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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