Central New Mexico Weather: 7/31/20

Yesterday was sunny, hot and still.  The air dried out and the winds increased and were breezy in the late evening.

This morning, the weather has been sunny, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Moisture has returned with the passage of the backdoor cold front.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.  The front and the northerly flow are leading to adequate deep-layer shear for severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature around 94 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming westerly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the east at 15-20 mph, becoming northeasterly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of around 97 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming northerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the east at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon.   Moisture is expected to increase significantly, increasing the likelihood of thunderstorms this afternoon.  Storms may become severe, with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for central New Mexico, including the Albuquerque Metro area.  Storms are expected to be outflow dominated, and will have gusty downdraft winds and large hail as the primary threats.

The visible satellite imagery shows just a few light clouds over the central part of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid boundary layer, with dry air above 550 mb.  There was 0.77 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 558 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -257 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1798 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 17 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 36 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with high humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under slightly higher pressure this morning, with a slight pressure gradient from northeast to southwest.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, northerly flow, as a trough digs through the Great Plains.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show no strong thermal advection.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, particularly east of the central mountain chain.

Precipitation will favor the Eastern Plains, though some rain is possible over most of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints are expected to remain in the mid 40s F all day.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the afternoon thunderstorms.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few clouds associated with the afternoon thunderstorms.

There is a chance of storms this afternoon and evening.  Otherwise, sunny, hot weather is on tap for the afternoon.

I’m running late with my post today and everything is a disaster.  We are under a Slight Risk, and I have a truck full of boxes that can’t get wet.  I’m in meetings til 6:30, so who knows how this will go.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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