Central New Mexico Weather: 7/20/20

Yesterday was partly sunny, hot and still.  In the evening, a round of showers and thunderstorms passed through the Albuquerque Metro area, though very little rain fell at my house.  From Albuquerque at sunset:

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The monsoonal pattern continues today.  The upper-level high has reorganized over the western part of the state.  This will dry out the northwestern corner, but will increase the storm coverage over the eastern half of the state.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature around 93 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph, becoming southeasterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of around 94 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the scattered thunderstorms today.  Some storms may be near severe limits in the northeastern corner of the state today, with large hail and outflow winds in excess of 60 mph possible.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the northeastern corner of the state.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few lingering clouds, particularly in the southern half of the state, from yesterdays showers and thunderstorms.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere today.  There was 0.89 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 278 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -446 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 771 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 12 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with high humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, varied flow over the state, as an upper-level high pressure systems sits to our south.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show very little thermal advection over the state today.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the state today.

Rain is possible in patches over most of the state today.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the low 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will start in the upper 50s F, dropping into the upper 30s F, as the dryline meanders east this afternoon.  The dewpoints will increase again after sunset.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds associated with the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Today will be hot and humid, with a chance of some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though maybe not as high of a chance as yesterday.  The dryline is expected to move farther east this afternoon as dry air surges from the Four Corners area into the Albuquerque Metro area.  This will reduce the chances of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm for Albuquerque.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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