Central New Mexico Weather: 6/29/20

Yesterday was sunny and hot.  I went for a run in the morning, and it was not as humid as last week.

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Deep mixing will again transfer some momentum to the surface, leading to sunny, windy conditions over the state.  This will increase the fire risk.  There is also a cold front that will move through tonight from west to east.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.  There is a Red Flag Warning in place until 8:00 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then becoming westerly at 10-15 mph after midnight.  There is a Red Flag Warning in place until 8:00 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 53 F.  The winds will be from the west at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.  There is a Red Flag Warning in place until 8:00 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the west at 20-25 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.  There is a Red Flag Warning in place until 8:00 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued Red Flag Warnings for most of the state today.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk along the NM/AZ border.  Stronger mid-level flow due to a deepening trough over the northwest and deep mixing will keep the humidity low in this region.  The pressure gradient will also tighten, leading to strong surface winds.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the state, with the bulk of them in the northwestern corner of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows moisture has increased slightly, though there are no nearly-saturated layers.  There was 0.55 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2646 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 27 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 29 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with low humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under  low pressure with no strong pressure gradients this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, with only a slight pressure gradient from southwest to northeast.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very light, zonal to northwesterly flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show some Warm Air Advection (WAA) from the northeastern corner of the state.  Notice how the winds are blowing across the thermal gradient from warm to cool.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows very little chance of showers or thunderstorms today.  This chart, and the precipitation chart, have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop from the 30s F into the 20s F this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be warm, sunny and breezy.  The NWS has called out a cold front this evening, but I see weak WAA this afternoon.  Perhaps I wasn’t paying enough attention and the cold air sinks in, and pushes back against the WAA this evening.  Either way, the temperature will not change much; it will be windy, however.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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