Central New Mexico Weather: 6/1/20

Yesterday was partly sunny, hot and humid.  I went for a run, and then worked in the garden until the sun came out.  Then, I stayed indoors until it clouded up again.  When it did, we went for a drive down to Belen, where we saw this rainbow.  If you look closely (second photo), you can see where the rainbow is split.

This morning, the weather has been warm, sunny and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  There is a 500-mb level high pressure system that is funneling moisture into the state.  Temperatures will remain above average, and with ample moisture (precipitable water >0.8″), showers and thunderstorms are possible, with gusty winds as the primary threat.  Locally heavy rains are possible as well.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 84 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a low temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few isolated showers and thunderstorms today.  The primary threat will be strong, downburst winds.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds scattered around the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere today.  There was 0.76 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 430 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -303 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1148 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 9 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 14 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows warm temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows we are under high pressure with no strong pressure gradients this morning.  The RAP shows diurnal heating will lower the pressure, but no strong pressure gradients are expected.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow.  There is a high pressure ridge, and the jet runs on all sides of us, rather than through us.

The NAM 850 mb chart and 700 mb chart show no strong thermal advection over the state today.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening, particularly over the northern third of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a little rain reaching the ground in this same region.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 40s F to mid 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible today, particularly northwest of the Albuquerque Metro region.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds associated with the showers and thunderstorms over north central New Mexico today.

Today will be warm and humid.  I think we will spend the bulk of the day inside.   I will probably mess with a few things in the garden, and I expect a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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