Central New Mexico Weather: 5/31/20

Yesterday was sunny, hot and humid.  The skies clouded up in the afternoon, and a few showers and thunderstorms passed through the area.  Here is one at sunset:

This morning, the weather has been warm, partly sunny and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Today’s forecast is similar to yesterday’s forecast.  A mid-level high pressure system remains over the NM/AZ border.  This will give us high temperatures, and will be the dominant feature for the next few days.  Moisture continues to increase, leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms in the northern third of the state.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 84 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  This evening be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few isolated showers and thunderstorms today.  The primary threat will be strong, downburst winds.

The visible satellite imagery shows some left-over clouds from yesterday’s convection in the center of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere today.  There was 0.76 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 430 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -303 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 768 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 10 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows we are under high pressure with no strong pressure gradients this morning.  The RAP shows diurnal heating will lower the pressure, but no strong pressure gradients are expected.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow.  There is a high pressure ridge, and the jet runs on all sides of us, rather than through us.

The NAM 850 mb chart and 700 mb chart show no strong thermal advection over the state today.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening, particularly over the northern third of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a little rain reaching the ground in this same region.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 40s F to mid 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  They will be stronger in the east, amplifying the fire weather threat.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds associated with the showers and thunderstorms over north central New Mexico today.

Today will be warm and humid.  I think we will spend the bulk of the day inside.  I disconnected all of my amateur radio antennas for last night’s storms, and will probably keep them disconnected all day.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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