Central New Mexico Weather: 5/30/20

Yesterday was sunny, warm and pleasant.  I went for a run, then did a little work in the yard and shed in the evening.  A few showers and thunderstorms formed, including some along an outflow boundary:

…though none passed through my area.  We did get a brief sprinkle at some point, as the dirt in the garden is “pilled”, where drops of water bonded the sand together in small clumps.

This morning, the weather has been warm, mostly sunny and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A high pressure system at 5930 m is situated over the NM/AZ border.  This will give us high temperatures, and will be the dominant feature for the next few days.  Moisture continues to increase, leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms in the northern third of the state.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming southeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  This evening be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, becoming east at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few isolated showers and thunderstorms today.  The primary threat will be strong, downburst winds.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few light clouds over the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere today, with an inverted-v shape, and a nearly saturated layer at 500 mb.  There was 0.75 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1907 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 5 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows we are under high pressure with no strong pressure gradients this morning.  The RAP shows diurnal heating will lower the pressure, but no strong pressure gradients are expected.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow.  There is a high pressure ridge, and the jet runs on all sides of us, rather than through us.

The NAM 850 mb chart and 700 mb chart show no strong thermal advection over the state today.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening, particularly over the northern third of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a little rain reaching the ground in this same region.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise from the upper 30s F to the upper 40s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  They will be stronger in the east, amplifying the fire weather threat.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds associated with the showers and thunderstorms over north central New Mexico today.

Today will be warm and humid.  I am going for a run in a few minutes, and then I will  work inside for a good part of the day.  We might go for a car ride later.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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