Central New Mexico Weather: 5/21/20

Yesterday was sunny, mild and pleasant.  I went for a run, but then ended up with a migraine and slept a good part of the day.

This morning, the weather has been mild, sunny and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The upper-level low has moved north into Montana.  A shortwave trough will pass through the state, in phase with the upper-level low.  Also, a lee-side thermal low has developed in the Eastern Plains of New Mexico.  The dryline has pushed into Texas, but there is some meager moisture in the northeastern corner of the state.  This will be the focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms today, though just across the border into Texas will have a better chance of storms.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph, becoming westerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 77 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening be clear, with a low temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming northwesterly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the threat of severe thunderstorms in the northeast.  The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds and frequent lightning.   The severe threat will mostly occur across the border in Texas.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.11 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 3504 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.8 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 13 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 48 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows low pressure on the lee side of the central mountain chain, with a slight pressure gradient from west to east.  The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light zonal to southwesterly flow.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the northeastern corner of the state today.

The Nested NAM simulated precipitation chart shows some rain reaching the ground in this area.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 80s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 50s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain the single digits today.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds are possible over the state today, with the exception of the few isolated storms in the northeast.

It should be a really pleasant day.  I have some work to do in a storage unit, but I might go for a run and work in the garden this morning.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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