Model Analysis: 5/19/20-5/25/20

It is time to look at the long term GFS model data covering Central New Mexico.  The omega block pattern that had settled over the plains is starting to weaken and move east.  Overall, sunny, warm weather is expected until the moisture begins to return on Sunday night.

The high temperatures will remain in the 70s F, peaking in the low 80s F on Saturday afternoon.

The low temperatures will bottom out in the mid 40s Friday morning.

The dewpoint will drop into the single digits by tomorrow evening, but then rise into the 20s F over the weekend.  The biggest change will be when the dryline retreats west on Monday morning, increasing dewpoints into the lower 40s F.

The skies will be mostly clear through Sunday.  On Sunday, as the moisture increases, the cloud cover will increase.

Precipitation looks unlikely, with a few isolated showers possible on Monday.  Trace amounts of rain may fall Monday night and Tuesday morning in the Albuquerque Metro area, with heavier precipitation over the Eastern Plains.

Synoptically speaking, there will be varying flow at the 250 mb level throughout the forecast period.  First, we will be slowly ejecting the omega block pattern that has been in place this past week.  As it moves east, the upper-level winds will shift.

At the 500 mb level, Friday will have a few pockets of Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA), as the trough pushes east.

At the 850 mb level, thermal advection appears light, though there will be some Cold Air Advection (CAA) as a backdoor cold front entering the state from the northwest on Sunday morning.

Overall, we will have warm, dry weather for the next few days, with perhaps a shower or two near the end of the forecast period.  I think the temperatures may be a little warmer than predicted (both lows and highs) and that cloud cover will be a little heavier (leading to the warmer low temperatures).

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
College of Dupage – Numeric Models, accessed 5/19/20.

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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