Central New Mexico Weather: 5/20/20

Yesterday was sunny, mild and breezy by the afternoon.  The morning was perfect, and I went for a run.  The evening was pleasant, though windy, so I sat outside and read on the lee side of the house.

This morning, the weather has been mild, sunny and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The upper-level low over the Great Basin will move slowly north today.  As it does, two shortwave troughs will cross through New Mexico, bringing with them cooler and drier air.  The eastern part of the state is humid, though deep mixing will lower the dewpoints later this afternoon, increasing the fire risk.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, becoming northwesterly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  This evening be clear, with a low temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph increasing to 15-20 mph by this afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, becoming westerly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a fire weather this afternoon.  There is also the threat of severe thunderstorms in the northeast.  The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds and frequent lightning.   The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the Eastern Plains of New Mexico.   Pressure gradient winds ahead of a weak cold front will be at a maximum in this region.  Humidity will also decrease through the day due to deep mixing, an advancing dryline and diurnal heating.

The SPC has also issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather over the very northeastern corner of the state.  Strong diurnal heating near a cold front will also interact with a slight shortwave trough.  Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

Associated with the Marginal Risk is a 2% chance of tornadoes.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the Eastern Plains this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere this morning, with a nearly saturated layer at 250 mb.  There was 0.21 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2772 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 21 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 43 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, increasing the pressure gradient across the northern part of the state.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow by this afternoon.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 80s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 50s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the teens by this afternoon, and the single digits this evening.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible today, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds are possible over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

I’m going to do a little work in the garden and perhaps work in my shed later today.  I may go for a run this morning, but this morning is already a mess.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Fire Weather, Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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