Central New Mexico Weather: 3/25/20

Yesterday was a beautiful day.  I went for a run.

This morning, the weather has been cool, sunny and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The primary concern for today is the springtime winds and the fire weather risk they generate.  Otherwise, the day will be mostly sunny and warm.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 68 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph, and gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 20-25 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the south at 20-25 mph, decreasing to 10-15 by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 73 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph and gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 70 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued Red Flag Warnings for a good part of the state, due to the dry air and high winds.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has also issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for parts of eastern New Mexico.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the northwest.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly- saturated layer from 450 mb to 400.  There was 0.22 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1878 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.8 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 7 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 96 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors), and the winds are moderate and from the southwest.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This, and the simulated precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 70s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 50s F right before sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will bounce around in the 10s and 20s F, as there are small pockets of moisture about.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are likely today, statewide.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared cloud cover chart shows a few clouds drifting into the state this evening.

Today will be warmer, but also very windy.  I may try to go for a run and do a little work in the shed or in my garden, but I’m not looking forward to the wind.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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