Central New Mexico Weather: 2/12/20

Yesterday was cloudy, cold and snowing.  We had a few inches here in Magdalena.  I decided to spend the night in Magdalena, rather than chance driving along US-60.

This morning, the weather has been cloudy, cold and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  the low pressure and trough will exit the state today.  A weaker shortwave trough and back door cold front may impact the northern part of the state, but the skies should clear and the air begin to warm in the Rio Grande River Valley.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 19 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy morning, gradually becoming a sunny day, with a high temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 21 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy morning, gradually becoming a sunny day, with a high temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 22 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a cloudy morning, gradually becoming a sunny day, with a high temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 15 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few lingering clouds.  However, most of the white reflections on here are from snow cover.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated column up to 600 mb.  There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 87 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 3.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 25 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 32 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows we are under low pressure, but no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will increase slightly over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal to northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows some light precipitation east of the central mountain range due to upslope flow.

The Nested NAM 10-1 snow chart shows trace amounts of snow on the eastern slopes of the central mountain range.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 40s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s F right before sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 10s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible this morning, but are expected to taper off throughout the day.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared imagery shows skies will be clear in the Rio Grande River Valley, but there will be some clouds throughout the day east of the central mountain range.

Today will be a day of thawing, and everything will be wet from melting snow.  It won’t be very windy, but the clouds may linger a bit this morning.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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