Central New Mexico Weather: 2/11/20

Yesterday was cloudy, breezy and mild.  In the evening, it started to rain hard.

This morning, the weather has been cloudy, cold and still.  Snow was not accumulating when I left Socorro, but was by the time I reached Magdalena.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  the combination of a closed low and an shortwave trough will continue to bring winter weather to the state today.  Winter weather will continue today and then shift to the northeast this evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a cloudy day, with an 80% chance of snow showers (1-2″), and a high temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the east at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated snow showers (<0.5″), and a low temperature of 19 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy day, with a 90% chance of snow showers (1-3″), and a high temperature of 35 F.  The winds will be from the east at 15-20 mph.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with an 30% chance of snow showers (<0.5″) and a low temperature of 20 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy day, with an 80% chance of snow showers (3-7″), and a high temperature of 32 F.  The winds will be from the east at 15 mph.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of snow showers (<0.5″) and a low temperature of 21 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a cloudy day, with an 80% chance of snow showers (3-7″), and a high temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the east at 15-20 mph.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of snow showers (<0.5″) and a low temperature of 17 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Winter Storm Warning for most of the state, with a few Winter Storm Watches at the edges.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.

The visible satellite imagery shows that the entire state is under cloudy skies this morning.  This is a potent winter storm.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated column up to 450 mb.  There was 0.41 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 337 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 3.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 28 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 92 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are breezy but variable.  The Doppler RADAR shows scattered precipitation over the southern half of the state this morning.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that there is high pressure over the Great Plains and low pressure over Mexico, leaving us in a strong pressure gradient.  The RAP shows this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.

The Critical Thicknesses Plot is not super-impressive, but there is an obvious dip into New Mexico with most of the critical thickness contours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows extremely strong, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows moderate Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving into the state from the east again today.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows large swaths of precipitation over most of the state this morning.  Another wave of precipitation is likely this evening as well.

The Nested NAM 10-1 snow chart shows heavy snow is possible, especially in the central highlands of New Mexico, through this evening.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 30s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s F right before sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 20s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible this morning, but are expected to taper off throughout the day.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared imagery shows skies will be cloudy.

Today will be cloudy, wet and gross.  I wonder how much snow we will actually receive here in Magdalena.  It is starting to accumulate, and it looks like we are in the biggest bull’s eye, according to the 10:1 and Kuchera snow methods.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.