I still don’t have my weather station, so I decided to post a few more old 2008 storm predictions.
Instead, I found my old 2008 paper notebook with storm predictions. Here are a few of my earlier predictions of severe weather. While I have been chasing since 2003, I was not very involved with the forecasting until 2007 or so.
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a 15% hatched area for the tornado risk. SPC has a Moderate Risk from central TX to south central OK. Based on this, everything points to Young County, TX, home of my first tornado intercept. SPC says there is a cold air mass moving across OK/TX and a closed low over AZ/NV. The low will push the air mass into warm, moist air. CAPE is expected to reach 2500 J/kg, with 40-50 kt deep layer shear. I would target Young County, TX.
Tye, Taylor Co., TX 20:30
Tye, Taylor Co., TX 20:35
Breckenridge, Stevens Co., TX 22:16
Graford, Palo Pinto Co., TX 23:50
Soper, Choctaw Co., OK 00:10
Kent, Choctaw Co., OK 00:20
4/16/08, 7:06 am
Meager change for storms today. SPC has a tiny area of Slight Risk and 2% Tornado Threat area over south central KS. I’m not going to look at too much. There is a plume of moisture going up through the center of the plains, though it is weak. There is no residual CAPE to work with, it would all need to develop today. There is a long cold front and a shortwave approaching however. I would target Kiowa, KS.
4/17/08, 7:24 am
SPC has a Slight Risk for north central TX and central OK. There is a 5% Tornado Threat area for this area as well. The southern end looks too capped to do anything (-20). They expect deep layer shear to be sufficient, provided storms stay ahead of the cold front. Cells which lag behind will get undercut by the cold front. Frontal motion is delayed by a developing surface low near the NM/CO border. I would target Ardmore, OK.
Update 4/18/08, 7:49 am
Tornado in Aledo, Parker Co., TX at 025. System went linear almost immediately.
4/21/08, 7:29 am
The models are divided today. SPC says if the cap can be broken, there will likely be a triple point around NW OK. They have a good portion of OK, SE KS, W MO in a Slight Risk, and 5% chance of tornadoes. There will be MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg, dewpoints over 60 F, and a cold front/dryline will intersect a shortwave. CIN is already high (-20 to -150) in parts of OK and TX. I would target Ponca City, OK.
No tornadoes, but hail in southern KS. Nothing else.
I’ll post more of these for my own records, just in case I lose my old notebook.
Thank you for reading my post.