Central New Mexico Weather: 1/13/20

Yesterday was sunny, cool and still.  It would have been a pleasant day, but the temperature was still low.

This morning, the weather has been clear, cold, and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A shortwave trough will move across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.  For the central part of the state, there is not enough moisture for precipitation, so the trough will produce strong winds and no precipitation.  In the north, there may be some orthographically forced precipitation.  Otherwise, this week will start off with a slight warming trend.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 23 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10 mph, becoming westerly this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming southeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 53 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 27 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Wind Advisory for the counties on and east of the central mountain chain.  They have also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Taos County.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few thicker clouds over the north central part of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated layer at 600 mb, and another one at 450 mb.  There was 0.20 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1011 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 3.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 34 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 79 kts (due to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are currently under no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that a high pressure system will push south and increase the pressure over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely today.  The simulated reflectivity, precipitation and snow charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 50s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s F right before sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise from the single digits to the mid-20s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible statewide, almost all day, tapering off in the evening.

The Nested NAM shows that skies will remain mostly clear.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be sunny, mild and breezy.  I hesitated to put “mild” as the winds may keep it cool.  As the trough passes through, the precipitation in the northern part of the state will trickle off, and we will be under sunny skies for most of the day.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.