Yesterday was humid, warm and rainy in Orlando, FL.
This morning has been cloudy, mild and still.
From the NWS in Melbourne, FL: Windy conditions are possible due to the pressure gradient between the cyclogenesis over the Bahamas and a high pressure trough that will push into the state this evening.
The NWS in Melbourne, FL, forecasts (for Orlando, FL) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the north at 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.
The NWS in Melbourne, FL, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of a few dry thunderstorms over the Atlantic Coast. These storms will likely drift into open waters by this afternoon.
The visible satellite imagery is not available at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows a sharp boundary between heavy clouds and lighter clouds.
The 12Z upper air sounding is unavailable at this time.
The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity. The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and from the southeast. The Doppler RADAR shows precipitation falling south of the boundary. On the surface map, the boundary is subtle.
The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that there is a slight pressure gradient trending from northwest to southeast. The RAP shows that this gradient will persist through at least the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal to slightly northwesterly flow.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart and 12-hr precipitation chart show the skies clearing in the next hour or two. These chart have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures will peak in the lower 70s F today.
The low temperature is predicted to be in the lower 50s F just before sunrise tomorrow.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop from the upper 60s F into the upper 40s F by this evening.
The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM predicts only a few clouds this evening. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM is much more optimistic about today’s weather. The NWS has said partly sunny skies, but the Nested NAM has the clouds drifting away completely by midday. Looking outside, it is pretty gloomy, and I have a hard time believing it will be clear skies by noon, but it might clear up this afternoon, judging by the infrared satellite image.
Thank you for reading my post.
Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
High Plains Chasing 