Central New Mexico Weather: 11/7/19

Yesterday was a rainy, cool and still in Socorro and Magdalena.

The weather is cloudy, foggy, cool and still so far this morning in Rio Rancho and Albuquerque.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Subtropical moisture has advected north and will meet up with a backdoor cold front that has pushed west to the central mountain chain.  These, combined with a subtropical jet, will lead to a mix of rain and snow at higher elevations and east of the central mountain chain.  This is a difficult forecast due to a thick layer of near-freezing temperatures aloft.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of showers and a high temperature of 49 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of showers and a high temperature of 53 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of showers and a high temperature of 50 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas to east of the central mountain range until noon today.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a sharp boundary, with thick cloud cover to the south of the boundary.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere below 500 mb.  There was 0.59 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 13 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.1 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 58 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under high pressure, with a slight pressure gradient this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows the extent of last night’s backdoor cold front.  It is not expected to push much farther west, but it will continue south into west Texas.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers will taper off by the early afternoon.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a few bands of heavy precipitation through the early afternoon.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 50s F today.

The low temperatures will be in the upper 40s F all night.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise into the 20s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly cloudy skies all day and night.

The rain will taper off throughout the morning.  It has stopped raining, though everything is damp and cloudy.  The fog has finally cleared up.  Yesterday’s rain was a good, soaking rain, good for the soil and the plants.  This afternoon will be cloudy and cool.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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