Central New Mexico Weather: 11/6/19

Yesterday was a sunny, mild and still in Rio Rancho.

The weather is partly sunny, cool and still so far this morning in Rio Rancho.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage, starting from the southern part of the state today.  Some storms may become briefly severe with strong winds and large hail.  This evening, a secondary wave of precipitation is possible as a backdoor cold front moves into the state from the northeast.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of showers and a low temperature of 39 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and a low temperature of 45 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms (before 11 PM), then a 60% chance of showers and a low temperature of 41 F. The winds will be calm, becoming northwest at 5 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning showers and thunderstorms today.  The primary threats will be straight-line winds and large hail, particularly south of a line from Roosevelt County to Catron County.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for southern New Mexico today.  The primary threats will be gusty winds and large hail.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few strong convective cells in the southern part of the state, as well as thick cloud cover spreading northward.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an increase in moisture as compared to yesterday.  There was 0.39 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2162 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.5 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 9 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 44 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and extremely low surface humidity.  The skies are a partly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.  The Doppler Radar shows a few showers in the western and southern parts of the state, in spite of the low surface moisture.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under high pressure, with no strong pressure gradients this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal to southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no further thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a few bands of heavy precipitation by this evening.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 50s F today.

The low temperatures will be in the upper 40s F all night.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise into the 20s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly cloudy skies all day and night.

There were a few drops of rain on my commute, and I expect more this afternoon.  Interestingly enough, the NAM doesn’t have the back door cold front hitting until the early morning hours tomorrow.  The NAM had the rain timed properly (rain this morning, not last night), so I tend to believe it on the cold front as well.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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