Central New Mexico Weather: 10/30/19

Yesterday was a sunny, cool and windy in Socorro and Magdalena.

The weather is clear, cold and still so far this morning in Socorro.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A positively-tilted trough with a strong jetmax will pass through the state today.  Ahead of this trough, there is an unusually strong cold front that will bring record-breaking cold, dry conditions to the state today and tonight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 16 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the north at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 16 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 18 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern third of the state this morning.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a large cloud shield over the northeastern corner of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are a clear in the west, but cloudy in the east (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems at this time, but strong high pressure to our north has generated a strong pressure gradient across the state.  The RAP shows that the pressure will rise as the trough pushes south.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) from the north as the cold front moves through the state today.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows storms and precipitation are likely throughout the morning, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows precipitation is possible in the northeastern corner of the state.  Given the low temperatures, this precipitation will likely be snow.  The Rio Grande River Valley should remain dry.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 40s F today.

The low temperature will be in the lower 20s F just before sunrise tomorrow.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints drop into the negative single digits F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds will be possible this afternoon, particularly near the mountain tops and through the canyons.

The Nested NAM predicts that clouds will clear out by noon.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

I’m not thrilled about early winter.  It will be unseasonably cold for the next few days.  I really need to replace my car battery, and I hope my car will start today and tomorrow in spite of the extremely cold weather.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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