Central New Mexico Weather: 10/29/19

Yesterday was a sunny, cool and windy in Socorro and Magdalena.

The weather is clear, cold and still so far this morning in Rio Rancho and Albuquerque.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A major cold front will move through the state tonight due to an impressive storm system that is forming over Utah.  This system will bring freezing drizzle and light snow to the northeastern corner of the New Mexico starting this evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 25 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, becoming southwest at 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 20-25 mph, becoming west at 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for northeastern New Mexico and a Special Weather Statement concerning the unseasonably cold weather for the rest of the state.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a small line of clouds in the southeastern corner of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.14 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1020  m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 1.6 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 29 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 66 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) from the north as the cold front moves through the state this evening.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows storms and precipitation are possible late this evening, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows precipitation is possible in the northeastern corner of the state.  Given the low temperatures, this precipitation will likely be snow.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 50s F today.

The low temperature will be in the lower 20s F just before sunrise tomorrow.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will peak in the lower 20s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds will be possible this afternoon, particularly near the mountain tops and through the canyons.

The Nested NAM predicts that clouds will begin to drift south, with cloudy skies possible north of I-40 by the late night hours.

I’m not thrilled about early winter.  However, two weeks from now, I’ll be in Florida, so perhaps this is a little karma, as I am getting to dodge some of the cold weather.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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