Southern New Mexico Weather: 10/20/19

Yesterday was a beautiful day.  I spent a bunch of it working in my shed, which is semi-outdoors.

Today, we are traveling down to Deming, NM, and El Paso, TX, to watch a steam train (Union Pacific 4014) pass through.  We need to leave early in the morning, so this will be an abbreviated post, featuring mostly model data.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph, and gusting to 45 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Deming, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-23 mph, gusting to 32 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the west at 16-21 mph, gusting to 29 mph, but then becoming north northeast at 7-12 mph.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for El Paso, TX) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F.  The winds will be from the west at 7-12 mph, then increasing to 17-22 mph and gusting to 31 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the west northwest at 16-21 mph, gusting to 29 mph, then decreasing to 8-13 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued numerous Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings, mostly for the eastern half of the state.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no new thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 50s F today.  We will hit our high temperatures between Deming and El Paso, in the upper 70s F.

The temperature is expected to drop into the mid 30s F before sunrise.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 10s F today.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible all day toady.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be cooler, clear and windy.  We will be driving into warmer temperatures and lighter winds on the way to Deming and El Paso, then stronger winds and cooler temperatures on our return trip.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, travel and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Southern New Mexico Weather: 10/20/19

  1. UP 4014 is a monstrous machine even by today’s standards, when railway equipment is generally big big big. I saw it when it passed through my neck of the woods. Pretty cool.

    Like

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