Central New Mexico Weather: 10/15/19

Yesterday was a sunny, mild and still.  I spent a little time running around at the junkyard, looking for parts for my truck.

Today is sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A small amplitude trough will pass through the southern part of the state today, where moisture has increased.  A few light showers are possible in this area.  A backdoor cold front will drop temperatures in the northeastern part of the state.  Overall, dry conditions will exist over most of the state today.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 39 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 71 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming north in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  These images have been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows dry air over the state this morning, though there is a nearly saturated layer at 550 mb.  There was 0.32 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1890 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.6 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 54 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under slightly high pressure, with no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows some Cold Air Advection (CAA) coming into the state from the east and northeast.  This is our backdoor cold front.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 70s F today.

The temperature is expected to drop into the mid 40s F before sunrise.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 10s F by this evening.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds will be unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

It is another beautiful, dry, still, autumn day here in New Mexico.  This evening will be chilly and clear.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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